Live sources: GA4 US property 354490582 · Method sales report v2 (0603) · brand_config.json · Instantly v2 API | MEASUREDESTIMATEDHEURISTIC
One-line answer. PE-Energy makes money as an export-heavy B2B-reseller closing by email/relationship. The website's measured US web-lead engine is Organic Search (70% of 149 June leads) — but it only monetizes on the four high-conversion GMC brands (Caterpillar Filters, JetLube, Air Sentry, Hand Safety). Everywhere else the lever is price, not traffic, and belongs to Shez.
$1.047M
June bookings · +22% YoY
+0%
YTD vs 2025 ($4.96M) — FLAT
149
US web leads (generate_lead)
10.1%
Pipeline conv · $120.46M open
Coverage header MEASUREDESTIMATED
Dimension
Figure
Tag
June bookings (US-dominant window)
$1,047,127 / 163 orders, +22% YoY
MEASURED
YTD 2026 vs 2025
$4.96M vs $4.94M — FLAT (+0%) ⚠ corrects stale "+19%"
MEASURED
Open pipeline → won (12-mo core)
$120.46M → 826/8,215 = 10.1%
MEASURED
Avg core margin (order value, not profit)
38.8%
MEASURED
Customer mix (Jul'25–Jun'26)
NEW 441/$3.86M · ACTIVE 182/$6.01M · REACT 48/$281K
MEASURED
Web leads vs true inbound
149 web leads vs ~85% of real inbound by email (invisible here)
MEASURED
Concentration
June 1-rep ≈35%, top-2 orders ≈25% (not re-pulled this run)
ESTIMATED
Two-ledger rule enforced: no combined "$X of revenue is organic/paid-driven" number anywhere. Web leads-by-channel reported directly (measured); revenue↔channel appears only as a fenced ESTIMATED hypothesis with no dollar attached.
Phase 0 — readiness & signal map
Signal
State
Note
GA4 (US/MX/CO)
LIVE
smoke OK · 16,973 US session test row
GSC refresh token
LIVE
winnability tool 0626_1530 available (not re-run — heuristic axis)
Method CRM
LIVE
sales report v2 ran clean
Instantly (outbound)
LIVE
v2 /campaigns/analytics pulled
Google Ads API
CRED PRESENT
spend not pulled; Paid visible via GA4 only this run
Brand→URL map: hub /brand/<slug>/ · category /product-category/<slug>/ · product /product/<sku-slug>/ — seeded from brand_config.wc_category_slug, confirmed against live GA4 URLs.
A · Money model MEASURED
June $1.047M/+22% but month-lumpy → treat June as a good month, not a run-rate.
~82% Resale + export tail; web-addressable slice small vs total revenue → keep web investment proportional; don't over-index the site as the growth lever.
Constraint is CONVERSION/PRICE not traffic ($120.46M @ 10.1%, biggest pipelines lose on Price) → flag pricing to Shez/Finance; never self-price.
Lumpy-window guard: top-2 orders ≈25% → don't label any brand "recurring" off one month.
B · Core-brand deep dive + constraint gate MEASUREDHEURISTIC
Only 4 brands earn "invest": Caterpillar Filters, JetLube, Air Sentry, Hand Safety — high-conversion, show-price, GMC-eligible, where an incremental web lead actually monetizes.
C · Channel dependency — three separate measured ledgers
Ledger 1 — US web leads by channel MEASURED
The inversion — sessions vs Lead CVR MEASURED
Channel
Leads
Sessions
Lead CVR
Organic Search
105 (70%)
6,716
1.56%
Direct
26
37,152 (79%)
0.07% ⚠
AI Assistant
6
271
2.2%
Paid Search
5
265
1.9%
Referral
4
205
2.0%
Unassigned / Social
3
—
—
US total
149
~45,900
0.32%
This INVERTS the stale baseline: US Organic wins BOTH count (70%) and real CVR. Direct = 79% of sessions at 0.07% CVR + the low-engagement flag = almost certainly bot-inflated → filter/instrument Direct before trusting it; don't invest in Direct. AI Assistant converts (2.2%) → monitor as emerging. → Organic is the US web-lead engine — invest organic on the 4 demand-gated brands.
Ledger 2 — Method revenue by brand MEASURED (kept separate)
June $1.047M; brand pipeline/conv per §B. No join to Ledger 1 exists — revenue is not attributed to any channel.
Outbound funnel — June (26 campaigns, all export markets)
3,043 sent · 1,393 opens (~46%) · 2 replies · 0 interested / 0 opportunities; all campaigns are export markets (UAE, Saudi, Qatar, Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Kenya, Egypt, Algeria, Libya, Philippines, Costa Rica) → outbound produced ≈0 qualified leads and targets non-US demand — it is NOT competing with US organic. Fix reply-capture/targeting or pause spend; don't credit organic/inbound with its absent output.
ESTIMATED — sanctioned triangulation (revenue↔channel bridge; hypothesis only, no $ attached)
Brands with (high Method conversion) × (organic-heavy web-lead mix) × (GSC demand) =
"organic plausibly drives real money": JetLube and Caterpillar Filters clear all three
(show-price, GMC-eligible, appear as organic landing-page lead drivers, healthy conversion).
DET-TRONICS/Sullair/Oteco appear as web-lead drivers too, but their pipelines lose on PRICE —
so their web leads do NOT convert to $ regardless of traffic. This is reasoning, NOT a
$-per-channel number. Last-non-direct-click also blinds us to whether organic FEEDS later
Direct/email — UNANSWERABLE with current tooling; state and stop.
D · URL-level web-lead breakdown MEASURED
Standing caveat: generate_lead = WEB slice only; ~85% of real leads (email/phone/bot) never touch a landing page.
No lead-source field in Method = root cause revenue↔channel stays ESTIMATED forever. Add a coarse enum (email-inbound/web-form/phone/cold-outbound/direct).
Direct bot-inflation (79% sessions @ 0.07% CVR) → add a bot filter / internal-traffic segment before trusting Direct.
Winnability axis (0626_1530) not re-run this pass — HEURISTIC only in §B.